HSE Economists Reveal the Secret to Strong Families
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have examined the key factors behind lasting marriages. The findings show that having children is the primary factor contributing to marital stability, while for couples without children, a greater income gap between spouses is associated with a stronger union. This is the conclusion reported in Applied Econometrics.
Over the past few decades, divorce rates have increased sharply in many countries, including Russia, where currently, eight divorces are registered per ten new marriages. Elena Vakulenko, Professor at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences, and doctoral student Aleksei Sek explored the factors that increase the likelihood of divorce, as well as those that help strengthen family relationships.
The researchers analysed data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE), covering more than 10,000 couples over a period of almost 30 years (1994–2021). The analysis considered factors such as the length of the marriage, the spouses' life satisfaction, their education and income levels, and whether they had children together. To evaluate the impact of various factors on divorce risk, the researchers used a Cox regression model.
Aleksei Sek
The study found that couples with income differences are much less likely to divorce than couples with equal incomes. 'It doesn’t matter which spouse—husband or wife—earns more; what matters is the very fact that there is an income difference,' notes Aleksei Sek.
Elena Vakulenko
'The economic explanation for these findings largely echoes Gary Becker’s classical theory of marriage, which emphasises the benefits gained from the division of labour between spouses. Where spouses make differing contributions to the family budget, they are more likely to adopt complementary roles: for example, one may spend more time earning money, while the other handles household tasks and everyday needs. Such specialisations can maximise the overall benefits of the marriage for both partners. In families where spouses are financially independent, there is less incentive to preserve the marriage amid disagreements, making relationship quality and the presence of children critical factors,' explains Elena Vakulenko.
To test the robustness of their findings, the authors divided the sample into couples with children and couples without children. It was found that income differences strengthen only families without children, whereas in families with children, the income difference loses its statistical significance. Instead, having children together appears to be the key factor contributing to marital stability in these cases.
Other factors influencing the strength of a relationship include the wife’s satisfaction with family life and the husband’s stable employment. In contrast, differences in education levels do not significantly affect the likelihood of divorce. According to the researchers at the HSE Faculty of Economics, the results provide a better understanding of the economic causes of divorce and can inform efforts to strengthen families and improve the country’s demographic situation.
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